Yangma announced the financial data in October. In terms of currency supply:
Broad currency (M2) balance of 30.971 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5 year -on -year increase%;
The balance of narrow currency (M1) is 63.34 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 6.1%;A trillion yuan, an increase of 12.8%year -on -year.
Social financing scale stock is 4.0345 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8%year -on -year, of which —
RMB loan issued to the real economyThe balance was 25.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 62.3%of the existing social financing scale during the same period;The balance of domestic stocks was 1.163 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5%year -on -year.Increased social financing scale in the first 10 months, a total of 2.706 trillion yuan, of which —
Increasing 1569 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year -on -year;Other other such as commission loans, trust loans, acceptance notes, corporate bonds, non -financial enterprise stock financing, etc.The year -on -year decrease was greatly reduced. Only government bonds were 710 billion yuan more than the year -on -year.
In these data, we mainly care about two data:
The growth rate of narrow currency M1;
The loan of the residential sector and the non -financial enterprise sector.
First look at the change of M1 growth, because the M1 growth rate is closely related to the A -share market index. At some times, it can even be regarded as the CSI 300 IndexLeading indicators.
According to the currency supply in October:
The total amount of M1 has begun to increase, and the growth rate may stop, which means that the growth rate of M1 may bottom out;
The bad news is that the growth rate of M1 is still stillIt is negative and near the lowest position.
Look at the loan data of the residential sector and non-financial sector.
Obviously, regardless of the residential department or non-financial enterprise sector, regardless of short-term loans or long-term loans, new loans have been added in recent months.They are all lingering in recent years.
If the new loan data cannot be seen in the month, the difference and trend can be seen, and you can see the overall situation in 12 months.
Obviously, whether it is the residential department or the non-financial enterprise department, it is not optimistic about the future economy.Long -term credit is basically maintained at a low position and did not turn around.
However, similar to the growth rate of M1, the good news is that from the data in October-
Residents and residents and residents and residents and residents and residents and residents and residents and residents and residentsThe total loan data of the 12 months of the corporate sector has no longer continued to decline in October as in the past few months.Is this the signal of Chinas economic growth rate?
Regardless of whether it is or not, the domestic domestic stock market has risen sharply (in contrast, Hong Kong stocks have not risen), this should beIs it the bottom reason?
