Financial Association February 24th (Reporter Zhao Zixiang) Recently, the market has also appeared on the market that "automatically reduces production in some photovoltaic companies due to the downward price of industrial chain" and " Different arguments such as the component end of the components in the industrial chain.What is the output of photovoltaic companies around the Spring Festival?After experiencing the "inside" test in the fourth quarter of last year, where will the photovoltaic industry be driving in 2024?
The reporter of the Financial Association learned from various interviews. As far as the component side is concerned, the operating rate In the state, some companies are trying to raise prices according to the specific situation of the signing.
But at the same time, some insiders told reporters from the CUHK that due to the fierce industry competition last year, and in the middle and late February, some small and medium -sized manufacturers were restarted to the start of the construction rhythm after reducing production and closing the factory. Enterprise.At present, with the gradual recovery of terminal demand, market photovoltaic orders are further tilted towards head enterprises, and the industrys new pattern of "Strong Hengqiang" has gradually appeared.
Leading Enterprise Open the "Management Model"
According to the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch, In the past week (February 15th to February 21), the components in the photovoltaic industry chain have rebounded in a particularly significant bombardment. With the implementation of the preliminary orders and the prosperity of overseas markets, terminal demand may increase significantly.It is expected that the module production in March will increase to more than 50GW, which will usher in a major turnaround.
The reporter of the Fiscal Association learned from the head of the photovoltaic industry that the component production line of the production base of the company in Anhui is currently full of production.The relevant person in charge of the company told the CCP reporter, "Because the current order is good, the company decides the production situation based on the amount of orders."
Energy (688599.SH), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), Longji Green Energy (601012.SH) and other leading enterprises have learned that several companies are currently under construction. Production status.According to the relevant person in charge of one of the enterprises, "the operating rate of front -line component companies has climbed significantly after the year, basically more than 80%."
At the same time, there are component companies to wealth. The reporter of the United News Agency revealed that the company is trying to raise prices, and the actual price must be based on the signing of the form.Another company said that "the price raising is in the brewing stage, and generally five minutes of money, the specific signing price depends on customer acceptance."
Lu Boofa, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) consulting expert, told the CCP reporter, "Several leading companies in the fourth quarter of last year can fight for the market price to 1 yuan/ The below tile continues to explore, it is the rich profit of the first three quarters. This year, the price is no longer reduced by wayward. January is inertia. During, the price of the price shrank under the stalemate. In March, the production of production increased by more than 30%from the previous month. Unbearable optimistic
However, some small and medium-sized photovoltaic manufacturers and head enterprises have different production conditions. Around the Spring Festival of the Dragon, the price of photovoltaic components is 0.8- 09 yuan/W range, and even the quotation has fallen to 0.79 yuan/W.It is far lower than the "cost line" of the photovoltaic component of 1 yuan per watt by previous people in the industry.
An industry insider told the CCP reporter, "There is a battery company on holidays before the Spring Festival, but it starts late after the year. The current construction is not very good. Some production lines have been suspended so far. "
This can also be seen from the operating rate of the entire industry and head enterprises. In February, the overall operating rate of Chinese photovoltaic component manufacturers was 23%, and the operating rate of the top nine component companies was 49%.
How will the differentiated production of production that will occur in the beginning of the year will affect the industry structure in 2024?Li Xiande, chairman of Jingke Energy (688223.SH), previously said in an interview with the media, "The photovoltaic industry needs continuous production to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Therefore, no continuous production capacity will be eliminated as soon as possible." P ID = "2GMDAN30"> Some people in the industry believe that "once the construction is not good, the photovoltaic manufacturers with insufficient production may enter the" malignant cycle "and may further lose their competitiveness."
However, some people in the industry have put forward different views. Lu Chaobe said," If there is no order, discontinue production and vacation, and the procurement organization production is started if there is a task. , Or supply chain collaboration, when the capacity of overcapacity, the large factory makes full use of its own production capacity, and the small factory capacity will be idle. "
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An industry insider told a reporter from the CUHK, "It is not surprising that component manufacturers are brewing of prices. The head component companies have no quotes below 0.9 yuan/watt "
Financial Press reporter noticed that at the opening ceremony of the 2023 photovoltaic industry annual conference last year, there are well -known entrepreneurs in the industry. It is publicly stated that large state -owned energy companies will not adopt a low -cost bidding method for bidding. At the same time, it is also recommended that photovoltaic enterprises carry out self -inspection and self -correction, consciously standardize sales behaviors, strengthen industry self -discipline, and avoid falling into a loss of money.
And since this year, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has indeed begun to show signs of recovery. TRENDFORCE recently stated that the price of silicon materials this week has stable. In the short term, there is still support for silicon material demand. It is not excluded that some faucet companies have a rising price in the price of next month.
In it, the price of battery films is stable, the high -efficiency N -type reports have risen price or will be blocked, and the profit of the battery link will be trimmed slightly.The price of components is stable, and the production of components in March may improve a significant improvement. In the first half of this year, emerging markets may still contribute greater supporting kinetic energy.
On February 22, data from the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association showed that the price of silicon wafers this week has stabilized and slightly rising.The average transaction price of M10 single crystal silicon wafer (182 mm /150 μm) rose to 2.05 yuan /piece, and the weekly increased by 2.5%; the average transaction price of N -type single crystal silicon wafers (182 mm /130 μm) was stable at 2.02 yuan /piece, weekly, weekly, weekly The average transaction price of the G12 single crystal silicon wafer (210 mm/150 μm) was maintained at 2.89 yuan/piece, and the weekly circles were flat.
"If the price increase is normal, the price needs to return to ensure the healthy development of the industrial chain. It is actually not as good as price and value. Reporter to the Finance News Agency.
Lu Board said, "Each institution predicts this years photovoltaic market, basically 400 Java installed machines, 500 Gilwa or above. Components, there are still market capacity, but the entire photovoltaic industry chain has nearly 1,000 GW production capacity. Silicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components each end of each end of the seasonal supply and demand reversed. , But the whole year is in the low profit range. "
