Core viewpoint
Disk Facial Analysis
The SASAC overnight to hold a central enterprises artificial intelligence special promotion meeting, emphasizing AIEmpowerment industry rejuvenation
, the market sentiment has continued to accelerate. After the large market is lowered on Thursday, it has shocked all the way, and the computing power, Sora, AI industry chain -related sector continuously fermented, more than 4,500 shares, more than 4,500 sharesIn the end, the broader market was closed by 1.27%, and the daily line achieved the "seven -linked Yang", setting the longest rising record in three and a half years, and the GEM rose 0.31%.%, Market confidence has been obviously repaired, individual stocks show a general rise, the activity of funds on the market has increased, and the market sentiment continues to be active.
The amount can shrink,
The active of stocks is reduced, and the structure differentiation decreases slightly.There are 78 stocks daily limit, 11 stocks for 20%of the daily limit board, 30%daily limit without individual stocks, 67 stocks with an increase of more than 10%, no stocks have fallen, and the actual net purchase of funds in the north is 3.69 billion yuan.Lare.
The policy of super expected will definiteFourth, the top gains are coal, computer, communications, petroleum petrochemicals, media, electronics, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, national defense military industry, etc., all in the case of all industries in the case of rising.The amount of quantity can be atrophic, the structural differentiation is still existence, the effect of making money continuously, the decrease in money loss effect, and the "eight -two" phenomenon is still the main feature of the market on Thursday.
Technical analysis
From a technical point of view,
The session rushed up at once, and fell quickly, completed the reshuffle within the day, and then fluctuated to rise, closed at the highest point, and shrank at the highest price.Over upward, short -term moving average arrangement, the price of price increases is departing from the situation, coupled with the psychological pressure of the integer passage near 3,000 points, after the short -term disk is shocked 3,000 points, the shock will be increased.
Time -seeking technical indicators display,
15 minutes MACD indicator golden fork, the short -term disk will continue to rise, challenge the challenge at 2994 points near 2994 pointsIn the short term, if it exceeds 2994 points in the short term, the MACD indicators will be separated from 15 minutes and 30 minutes.
The price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is reduced,
The short -term moving average is arranged, and the price of the price increases fromThe 5th line is far away. After the short -term market is rushing, there is a reflection pressure in the disk.
The price of 50 prices of science and technology innovation
Line support.In the arrangement, the K -line combination form has the situation of building a "head and shoulders" right shoulders. According to the symmetrical type, it is expected to return to the accelerated upward trend after the short -term shock.
The price increase of the GEM
, the 5th line support, the K -line combination form is also building a "head and shoulder bottom" situation,After the short -term sideways, it is expected to form a new round of upward trend.
Comprehensive Technical Analysis,
We believe that although the transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities has shrinking againThe market in the A -share market is very strong, so the market is seriously sold. The short -term market will continue to rise and challenge the pressure above 3,000 points.The real pressure is between 3053 points and 3200 points. At present, the markets continued "V" reversal trend will not change. After the short -term storage of the market, it will challenge the pressure near 3053 points.
Base Face AnalyP ID = "2GMFTTH8"> The broader market encountered a more obvious resistance when nearly 3,000 points of integer passage, and the willingness to chase high was obviously weakened.The highest point on the day reached 2981 points, which exceeded the lowest point of 2974 points in 2023 for two consecutive days.Whether it can return to the "3000 -point era" to make a question.
3000
The pressure near points is obvious. This is not difficult to understand.As the bottom area of the city that shocked the city for two consecutive years from 2022-2023, 3000 points were effectively fell off for the first time in December last year. We can see from the figure that after December last year, the broader market challenged near 3000 points in early January 2024 near January 2024 near January 2024 near 3000 points near 3000 points.The pressure but failed to achieve effectively. In a sense, an effective breakdown of 3,000 points and a "challenge failure" of 3000 points is the fact that 3000 points become the top of the next stage. This key point of this is a key point.It is not only related to the technical aspect, but also to emotion and confidence.
The discussion of market confidence we have explained very clearly in the previous report,
Focus on the current time, since 23 years 12 yearsSince the continuous fluctuation of continuous shocks near 3,000 points, 370 points have been replenished in just 7 trading days within a month of more than a month.The trend of shocks, whether the ups and dynamics will be exhausted, the analysis of our multiple dimensions is as follows:
First,
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So,
The focus of market care at this stage to stir up the main promotion of 2024 "A -share market beams"We believe that the science and technology innovation theme sector headed by "double innovation" will undoubtedly become the main theme of the year.Whether it was the "national team" a large purchase of dual -innovation ETFs to drive market sentiment to rise, or on the evening of the 21st, the SASAC proposed that the AI empowerment industry renewed the market, and the direction of the guidance was more clear.At this stage, the valuation of the science and technology innovation sector is at a low level, and the news surface affects the stock price. However, the expected establishment and the market expectations of the main funds still need to be further confirmed. In additionInner hover is a certain phenomenon.
Third, whether the incremental funds are sufficient,
We believe that the main line funds are sufficient to support the overall rise of the subsequent market.From a macro perspective, the same-month increase in M1 in January, the difference between the M1-M2 negative cutting knife has narrowed significantly and jointly shows that the liquidity of the market has improved significantly.Judging from time, this part of incremental cash flow occurred before the concentrated release of the CSRCs current round of policies, and implemented in the A -share market, and the source of funds was abundant.
Lets referThe market is reasonable, and the panic of the epidemic is gradually released. Foreign capital continues to buy, and optimistic expectations have gradually rebounded. At that time, the GEM increase was far exceeding the market trend.With the expectations of growth, coupled with the guidance of innovation -driven connotative growth, the small and medium -sized market value stocks of science and technology innovation themes led the broader market to the trend of nearly a year in the context of extremely pessimism.
On the other hand,
Throughout the progress of A shares,
3000 points aboveThere are more seducts, and the seductive below 3000 points has long been one of the main laws of the A -share market.At this time, the market is very controversial about the reversal or rebound. The closer to the integer gate, the more controversy, and the market is hesitating and the rising of the vacant style.One -The BUY On Rumours, Sell On News is very accurate at this time. The market will be born in hopeless, traveling in hesitation, and ending in crazy.
Need to be clear,
Operation Strategyreiterate our point again,
The market is estimated to attack before the "two sessions" and stand firmly above 3000 points. Whether it is growth or elastic, the main promotion of the bull market will be the probability of growth technologyThe theme, which has both α and β strategies, will lead the broader market to further develop space. The trend of the broad market shaking upward will not change due to short -term storage.In terms of operation, light indexes, heavy stocks, and heavy warehouses are mainly observed. Those who are lightest are attracted dirty.Stocks, avoided strong stocks and garbage stocks in the early stage.
Time-selecting simulation stock portfolio
Figure 1: 2024 simulation stock portfolio
Chart 2: The combination is relatively Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 income map
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