This article is compiled by EET.JP
ASML future by the semiconductor industry (ID: ICVIEWS)May face stricter supervision.ASML announced on October 16, 2024 the third quarter of 2024 (Q3) financial results.However, due to the "technical error", the financial performance report was released one day in advance, that is, 15th, because of the disappointment of performance, ASMLs stock price plummeted on the 16th.
The cause of "ASML flameout" this time: "The order in the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 50%compared with the second quarter of 2024 to 2.633 billion euros", "2025 fiscal yearSales forecasts have fallen from up to 40 billion euros to 35 billion euros. "
This article will show ASMLs past performance and the shipping trend of the exposure device.
Trump, who will take office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, may continue to provide an ASML to China Loin ARF immersion equipment.If this happens, the Trump administration may ask "the exit of ARF immersion equipment immediately" and even stricter supervision of ASML.
ASML exposure system sales and order volume
Figure 1 shows the turnover and order of the ASML exposure systemquantity.
First, lets take a look at the changes in the value of order.From the second quarter of 2024 (5.57 billion euros) to the third quarter (2.63 billion euros), the order amount was reduced by half.However, from the third quarter of 2022 (8.92 billion euros) to the third quarter of 2023 (2.6 billion euros), the order dropped by about 70%, from the fourth quarter of 2023 (9.19 billion euros) to the first quarter of 2024(3.61 billion euros), the order further decreased by about 60%.Isnt this a bigger problem?
More importantly, there seems to be no correlation between the amount of orders received and sales: after receiving an order of the exposure system, ASML will be prepared in 6 months to 1 year.Delivery to semiconductor manufacturers after the period.However, from the first quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022, the value of order received far exceeded sales.
and such a huge order does not seem to be converted into sales in six months to one year.If you consider why this situation occurs, it may be because ASMLs order backlog, or because semiconductor manufacturers are postponed or canceled the launch of the product.In short, receiving orders does not necessarily mean sales.
Also mentioned above, the order amount has decreased from the third quarter of 2022 (8.92 billion euros) to the third quarter of 2023 (2.6 billion euros) by about 70%.Influence, sales have decreased by about 30%from the fourth quarter of 2023 (5.68 billion euros) to the first quarter of 2024 (3.97 billion euros).In other words, it can be seen that the decrease in order amount has caused a slight decrease in sales than one year ago, but the decline is not serious.
As mentioned above, the quantitative analysis of the relationship between sales and order value shows that the value of order value between the second and third quarters of 2024 is regarded as ""ASML turning off" is obviously excessive reaction.
ASMLs achievements
Figure 2 shows the trend of ASML sales, operating income and operating profit margin.ASML began to ship EUV (extremely UV) exposure equipment around 2016.Next, in 2019, TSMC became the worlds first company in mass production of 7nm+ EUV exposure equipment.In addition, in December 2023, Intel launched the High Na version in the United States.
In summary, from the perspective of ASMLs performance trends, with the popularity of EUV light carvings in the global semiconductor industry, ASML’s of ASMLSales and operating income seem to be expanding rapidly.In addition, the operating profit margin has been maintained at about 25%to 30%.
In fact, according to the third quarter of ASML in 2024, from 2023 (27.56 billion euros) to 2024 (28 billion euros) sales increased little.However, it is reported that "the sales forecast of the fiscal year as of December 2025 has been reduced from the highest 40 billion euros to 35 billion euros." This is "ASMLs impact." The author cannot accept this statement.This is because even if it is 35 billion euros in 2025, it will increase by 25%compared to 2024.
Next, take a look at the trend of ASML quarterly sales, operating income, operating profit margin trend (Figure 3).In the first quarter of 2024, sales and operating profits declined, but they resumed later. In the third quarter of the same year, the company announced the sales of sales (7.47 billion euros) in a quarterly record (7.47 billion euros) and the operating profit of record records (24.44.4100 million euros).Business profit margin is also at a high level of 32.7%.In addition, the sales of sales in the fourth quarter of the next quarter will reach a new high.As you can see, the quarterly performance is at a high level, so it is impossible to understand why they were reported as "ASML flames".
Figure 3.ASML quarterly sales and operating profit (2024 Q4 uses the average prediction value of 8.8 billion to 9.2 billion euros).Source: ASML Financial Report
It is worth noting that the number of shipment (shipment amount) of ARF immersion of ASML is increasing rapidly, and the amount of ASMLs shipments to ChinaIt is also increasing.
ARF immersion photocarrier shipment and shipment amount
Figure 4 shows ASML according to exposure deviceDivided quarterly shipments.The first thing I pay attention to is the performance of the shipment of ARF immersive light carvings.Until around the third quarter of 2022, the quarterly shipments of ARF immersive equipment were about 20 units.
However, by the second quarter of 2023, this number almost doubled, reaching 39 units.Since then, the first quarter of 2024 has fallen to an average of 20 units, but since the second quarter of the same year, it has risen again. In the third quarter, the shipment reached 38 units, close to a record high.
Figure 5 shows the quarterly sales (ratio) of ASML according to the exposure device.It can be seen that the pillar of ASML exposure devices is EUV and ARF immersion.In particular, since 2023, when the number of ARF immersion devices increases, it is not uncommon for the proportion of ARF immersion to EUV.
From the sales of the exposed device in Figure 5b, ARF immersion sales increased from 1.6 billion euros in the first quarter of 20232.75 billion euros in the second quarter of the same year.In the first quarter of 2024, it fell to 1.55 billion euros, but since the second quarter of the same year, it has risen again, reaching a record high of 2.84 billion euros in the third quarter.This matches the behavior of the number of shipments explained in Figure 4.
So, although there are ups and downs, who is purchasing ARF immersive?
Revenue proportion from China has increased
Taiwan: China:Dark blue; pink: South Korea; Red: China; Green: United States; Light Blue: Japan; Yellow: Europe; Purple: Asia.
First of all, from the perspective of the sales ratio of various regions in Figure 6A, the proportion of sales of China in the first quarter of 2022 was only 8%, but the third quarter of the same year jumped to 46%.In the fourth quarter, it fell to 39%, so the author believes that sales of China will continue to decline, but this is not the case.The proportion of exports to China in the first and second quarters of 2024 remained at a high level of 49%, with 47%in the third quarter.
Next, from the perspective of sales divided by regional in Figure 6b, the third quarter of 2023 sales of China were 2.44 billion euros, although the fourth quarter decreased slightly in the fourth quarterBy 1.94 billion euros, but increased again from the first quarter of 2024. In the same year, sales in Q3 reached 2.79 billion euros, a record high.
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