The output of the cement industry in the first three quarters reached a new low since 2010, and the total industry profits fell by more than 60 %. Can it come out of the downturn in the fourth quarter?
According to data from the China Cement Association, in the first three quarters of 2024, the total profit of the cement industry will decrease by about 65%year -on -year.Among them, Tianshan Cement (000877) lost more than 3.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 7471%year -on -year; the net profit of Conch Cement (600585) was 5.198 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 40%; Huaxin Cement (600801) net profit was 1.138 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 39.26%.
In the first three quarters of this year, due to the low real estate investment and the continuous slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, cement output reached a new low.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2024, the new construction area of houses in the country decreased by 22.2%year-on-year, of which the newly started residential area decreased by 22.4%; the national infrastructure investment (excluding power) increased by 4.1%year-on-year, compared with the same period last year than last year last year last yearThe decrease of 2.1 percentage points; the cumulative cement output of enterprises above designated size was 1.327 billion tons, a year -on -year decrease of 10.71%(calculated by comparable calibers), the lowest value since 2010.
China Cement Network data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, among 31 provinces (cities), only the provinces (cities) of cement output have only Tibet and Heilongjiang regions, and the rest have declined.EssenceThe year -on -year increase of cement output in Tibet was 9.12%year -on -year, mainly due to the continued release of many infrastructure projects in the area, and the overall demand for cement demand was better; the new construction area of real estate in Heilongjiang increased, and cement output increased slightly by 3.79%.
In terms of price, in the first three quarters of this year, the average market price of PO42.5 cement nationwide was 373 yuan/ton, a year -on -year decrease of 7.2%.However, during the "Silver Ten" period, the price of cement was raised.According to the data of China Cement Network, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) in early October was 124.84 points. At the end of the month, it closed at 131.3 points, an increase of 5.63%month -on -month and 19.73%year -on -year.
As of November 8, the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) closed at 133.08 points, an increase of 20.41%year -on -year.
In addition, coal, as an important raw material for cement, has decreased year -on -year in the first three quarters, but it is still at a historical high.Data show that from January to September 2024, the average spot price of power coal was about 874.94 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 10%from the same period last year.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Chen Berlin, deputy secretary -general of the China Cement Association and president of Digital Cement Network, said that the cement industry is expected to usher in a positive change in "volume and price rise".The trend is mainly due to the gradual improvement of the macroeconomic environment.At the national level, policy promotion has been strengthened, a series of incremental policy measures have been introduced, and special bonds are accelerated to alleviate the tension of funds, which will effectively increase the operating rate of downstream engineering projects.At the same time, the adjustment of real estate policies aims to stimulate sales and promote the recovery of construction activities, thereby slowing down the decline in cement demand.
Li Kunming, a cement analyst at the Chinese Cement Network · Big Data Research Institute, also said that it is expected that cement demand will continue to weaken in the fourth quarter of this year, but the sound of "anti -internal volume" has risen and the industryIn the context of strengthening self -rescue awareness, corporate production has increased, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits have continued to repair.From the perspective of the year, cement demand will face large downward pressure, and industry profits will still decline.
CITIC Securities stated in the research report that on October 31 this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised and issued the "Implementation Measures for the Capacity Replacement of Cement Glass Industry (2024)", which is expected to accelerate 300 million tonsThe clearing of the above backward cement clinker capacity has dropped the actual production capacity from 2.1 billion tons to less than 1.8 billion tons of design capacity.The optimization of supply -side capacity helps the industrys ecology, and the cement industry is expected to change the situation of great losses and return to a reasonable level of profit.
In addition, Shangfeng Cement (000672) said on October 31sts investigation of the institution that the fourth quarter was the traditional peak season of the cement industry, and the price of cement products in various regions rose in turns.Judging from the recent market conditions, it generally has good expectations for the fourth quarter of the cement industry.In recent years, the price of the cement industry has greatly downgraded enterprises. However, there are national replacement policies and support for western development policies. The contradiction between supply and demand in some regions next year is expected to ease. The market is expected to recover and product prices will become stable.
Editor -in -chief: Zhao Hanyu Text Editor: Dong Siyun Title Picture Source: Photo of the top of the view
Source: Author: Surging News
