The Fed ushered in a good news.
On the evening of November 13, Beijing time, the October CPI report released by the US Labor Statistics showed that the US CPI in October in October increased by 2.6%year -on -year2.4%, a three -month high, stopped the "six consecutive declines"; the core CPI in the United States in October increased by 3.3%year -on -year, in line with market expectations.
Wall Street analysts said that there is good news for the Fed: the so -called "super core" service index that eliminates housing costs in OctoberEssenceThe CPI data released today eases the markets concerns about the Feds pace of interest rate cuts.
After the data is announced, the trader has added bets on the Federal Reserve in December.According to CMEs "Feds Observation", the probability of the Federal Reserves cumulative interest rate reduction of 25 basis points from December rose to 75.7%.However, some institutions believe that the expectations of the Feds next interest rate resolution may not be affected by the report today, because the Fed is currently more inclined to employment tasks.
At the market level, the three major US stocks have a narrow range of the US stocks. As of 22:50, the Dow rose 0.11%, the Na index rose slightly by 0.02%, and the S & P 500 index rose slightly by 0.01%.In terms of Chinese stocks, the Nasdaqs China Golden Dragon Index fell slightly by 0.5%, Jinshan Cloud rose over 12%, Jingke energy rose more than 2%, and shells, ideal cars, Mavericks electric, etc. fell more than 1%.
Data out of heavy data
On the evening of November 13, Beijing time, the US Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics released October Consumption Price Index (CPI) The report shows that the CPI in the United States in October increased by 2.6%year -on -year, in line with market expectations, which was higher than the previous value of 2.4%, which was a three -month high and stopped "six consecutive declines".The market expects that the previous value is increased by 0.2%.
The core CPI in the United States in October increased by 3.3%year-on-year, in line with market expectations, the previous value rose 3.3%;0.3%, in line with market expectations, the previous value rose 0.3%.
According to data from the Labor Statistics Bureau, the housing costs occupy more than half of all projects in October and become the main driving force for inflation.This phenomenon shows that housing costs have a significant impact on the overall inflation level, highlighting the importance of the housing market in the economy.
In addition, the price of second -hand car in the United States has risen by 2.7%, the largest increase in more than a year, and the price of hotels rose 0.4%. These data may reflect the hurricane Helen and Milton.destroy.
Analyst Chris Anstey said that there is good news for the Fed: the so -called "super core" service index that eliminates housing costs has increased in October in October.The increase of 0.31%is slightly lower than the average level of 0.35%this year.
After the data is announced, the trader has added bets on the Federal Reserve in December.According to CMEs "Fed Observation", the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged from December to December is 24.3%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points is 75.7%(37.9%and 62.1%before the CPI was announced).By January next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 16.5%, the probability of cumulative interest rate cuts of 25 basis points is 59.2%, and the probability of accumulating interest rates of 50 basis points is 24.3%(CPI was 26.5%, 54.9%, and 18.6%before the announcement of the announcement of CPI, respectivelyTo.
Lindsay Rosner, an analyst of Goldman Sachs Asset Management Company, said that after a series of unusually hot autumn data, the CPI data released today eases the markets concerns about the Feds interest rate cut.
Robert Pavlik, a high -level investment portfolio manager of Dakota Wealth, said that the US CPI data in October in October meets expectations, which relieves some concerns of the market before the report.Stock market trend.
But analyst Megan Leonhardt believes that one month of data has almost no effect on the Feds interest rate prospect, especially under the weak labor market.With the fading of US inflation, the Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates twice to ensure that the employment market has remained strong.
General Managing Director of Jiaxin Finance British also said that the election has disrupted the prospects of the next few months to a certain extent.And tax reduction plan.Since there was another CPI data announced before the Fed conference in December, he would not pay too much attention to this data.The expectations of the Feds next interest rate resolution may not be affected by the report today, because the Fed is currently more inclined to employment tasks.
Faculty of interest rate cuts of the Fed
It is worth noting that because Trump has just won the US election, traders have inflation in the future of the United States in the future of the United StatesIt is expected to fall into confusion.Therefore, for todays CPI report, the market tension is far worse than before.
The Bank of America Merrillin believes that according to the speech by the Federal Reserve President Powell last week, the CPI data cannot change the possibility of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut again in December.Before the December interest rate resolution, the Fed will receive another CPI report.
In the latest interview, the Fed said, "There are 6 weeks before the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, and more data will be announced during this period. The CPI report overall data confirmationOur current trend. "
Kashkali warned that if U.S. inflation has risen unexpectedly before December, this may suspend interest rate cuts.In the environment with high productivity, the high neutral interest rate means that the Federal Reserve has less room for interest rate cuts.The degree of interest rate cuts at the Fed will depend on the US economic performance.
Bank of America analysts believe that in view of Powells remarks, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points again in December.However, the change of inflation risk, coupled with the toughness of the US economy, has increased the uncertainty of the prospects of midterm policy.Policy changes may constitute upward risk of inflation prospects.
Although the Federal Reserve has not hinted that the operation will be suspended next, Wall Streets betting on slowing interest rate cuts is quietly heating up.
Scott Kleinman, co -president of Apollo Global Management Company, warns the market not to be too satisfied with the current inflation and interest trajectory of the United States.
Considering the plan to reduce taxes and levy a series of import tariffs in the United States, many Wall Streets, including Kleinman, warned that these policies may become a policy may become a policy that may become it.A catalyst that exacerbates inflation.
Among them, NEEL Kashkari, chairmanImplementing common tariffs on imported goods. If global trading partners counterattack, retaliatory measures for the United States may increase long -term inflation.
Kleinman said that due to global trends such as digital infrastructure construction and decontamination, inflation pressure has been formed, "therefore we will have to endure a higher interest rate environment for longer."
Since September this year, the Fed has cut interest rates twice in a row, with a total rate of interest rate cuts reaching 75 basis points. Kleinman warned that" the more the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the more difficult to control inflation."
Editor -in -chief: Zhao Hanyu Text Editor: Dong Siyun Title Picture Source: Photo of the top of the view
Source: Author: Broker China
