Economic data in the first three quarters of 2024 has been released. In the quarter, the year -on -year growth rate is 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6%, showing a downward trend.This means that in order to achieve the growth rate of about 5%of the year, the pressure on economic growth in the fourth quarter is very high, and it requires a growth rate of 5.5%. This is a relatively important challenge.
And from the perspective of calculating the US dollar GDP, China once accounted for 77%of the US GDP in 2021, and by the first three quarters of 2024, it would only be about 61.7%.
At the annual analysis meeting, Hong Academy judged the main contradictions facing the Chinese economy:
The perspective of the balance sheet looks at the Chinese economy. A large -scale depreciation of the asset end of the real estate and stock market is a large -scale depreciation, which weakens the turnover capacity (consumption and private investment) on the debt side, that is, the hidden pressure of the shrinkage to suppress the economic vitality.The growth of GDP is not enough to compensate asset losses quickly.
The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed the top -level design of the economic reform in the next five years, as well as the specific roadmap deployed and implemented, which will greatly change Chinas socio -economic structure!
For the decline in the growth rate of July and August, the analysis of the Hong Academy will have expected it in the middle of the year and believe that the third middle school of the 20th middle schoolAfter the plenary session, all parts of the country must conduct overall studies, unify thinking first, clarify the direction, and the central government first has policies, and supporting measures can be introduced in various places to promote economic development.
The Hong Academy also analyzed the overall logical structure of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee at the annual analysis meeting.Reality is verifying the analysis and judgment of the Hong Academy.
In August, the central government began to introduce the policy of favorable economy.Confidence in economic development; improve the quality of foreign investment; reduce the sealing of securities transaction stamp duty, optimize IPOs, re -financing supervision arrangements, and standardize shares reduction behavior.
In September, the central government took the initiative to implement the stock policy, and launched a large amount of incremental policy. The down payment ratio of buying a house, adjust the interest rate of the stock loan; create a convenient exchange for securities, funds, and insurance companies, create stock repurchase, increase the holding of special re -loans; promote large -scale equipment updates; "clear zero" manufacturing industry field access restriction measuresEssence
On October 12, the MinistrySerious series of measures.It is a one that supports local government debt risks alone. In November, the Ministry of Finance took out a 10 trillion -in -debt gift package!
The introduction of these policies has promoted the economic improvement from different levels.Since September, there have been more and more positive changes in industrial, foreign trade, stock markets, property markets and other fields, and many indicators have begun to rise.
50.1%, and the just released October China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) returned to the expansion range, which opened a good start for the Chinese economy in the fourth quarter.
The trade surplus of the first 10 months soared to $ 785 billion, the highest level at the same time, an increase of nearly 16%over 2023.Bloomberg even estimates that Chinas annual trade surplus will exceed $ 1 trillion.
From the perspective of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the closing is at 3421 points today. It has rebounded nearly 800 points from 2689 points in mid -September!
In October, the transaction of commercial housing achieved "dual growth" from the previous month, and the national real estate market showed a positive momentum of stopping decline.In the first week of November, the transaction volume of the property market in many cities rose year -on -year.The area of residential land in 40 large and medium -sized cities reached 350,000 square meters, and the land transfer was as high as 18 billion yuan.In October, Beijings second -hand housing sales exceeded 17,000 units, an increase of 62.9%year -on -year, a new high in nearly 19 months.In November, the transaction volume of second -hand housing continued to recover.
Under the promotion of the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy is promoting, rebuilding confidence and release vitality, but is the road ahead really a "follow"?
Many foreign media hold different views.After the Chinese stock market fell on Monday, Nikkei said that the Chinese stock market was dividing in the concerns of the stimulus plan and the concerns of Trumps election.
The Associated Press reported that due to the real estate crisis and shrinking pressure, the attractiveness of the Double Eleven Shopping Festival to Chinese consumers is decreasing, forcing e -commerce companies to seek overseas growth.
Bloomberg also said that China is now more dependent on exports to make up for the weakness of domestic demand. Beijing has not tried to boost domestic demand through stimulating measures, but the lack of investors hope to seeComprehensive financial support.The latest data shows that Chinas CPI is still close to zero, and the factory price has continued to fall, and it has not got rid of the crisis.
Lianhe Zaobao reported that the direct investment liabilities in the international revenue and expenditure balance table in China in the third quarter decreased by $ 8.1 billion.The first nine months fell nearly $ 13 billion.This shows that more funds have been withdrawn from China in the third quarter. Although Beijing has launched stimulating measures, investors are still pessimistic.
And the global economic growth rate continues to slow down, from 3.5%in 2022 to about 3.1%this year, and the growth rate of trade is also decreasing.At the same time, from South America to Europe, many countries are setting up tariff barriers for Chinese steel and electric vehicles.If the external environment is not good, it will inevitably affect the development of Chinas economy. Trump will wait for the Sino -US tariff war next year.
After Trump was elected, UBS made a forecast for Chinas growth in 2025 and told investors that it is expected that Chinas economy will grow "about 4%" in 2025. In 2026, 2026It will increase at a "quite low" speed.
On November 11, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out in the Economic Daily that it must build a large domestic cycle led in domestic demand to achieve high -level self -reliance.
The Chinese economy after the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is improved?
In 2024, how does the Chinese economy achieve a growth rate of about 5%?
Where is the opportunity of the Chinese market?How to lay out in advance?
