[Text/Observer Network Column Author Mao Kezhi]
10 years since Modi took office in 2014, India has developed rapidly, fastest, fastest thanIn 2027, it is expected to become the third -ranked economy in GDP. It has been touted by the West and Indian media as "a new center for the global industrial chain supply chain that is expected to replace China".strength.
However, if you carefully analyze the actual performance of the Indian economy during this period, it is not difficult to find:
"Indian Miracle", the name is not true.What is the support of Modis 10 -year "economic miracle"?
According to CEIC , according to the average contribution of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2023, ModiThe top three pillar industries of the 10 -year "economic miracle" are all service industries: first, financial, insurance, real estate and business services, with a total contribution of 25.23%; second, trade, hotels, transportation and communications, with a total contribution of 24.39%; the third is to be;Community, society, and personal services have contributed 14.40%in total.The contribution of the three additional GDP more than 50%per year, and then the manufacturing (13.92%) and the construction industry (9.45%).
That is to say, the service industry -instead of the "Indian manufacturing" that is not well -known — is the main driving force for Indias economic growth in the past 10 years.
Due to the weaker service industry chain and cluster effect than the manufacturing industry, the economic growth model led by the service industry has caused insufficient Indian employment positions, weak exports, and trade deficitExcessive problems have also led to systemic weaknesses such as the widening of the rich and the poor, and the lack of linkage in the industry.At the critical stage of economic take -off, the reason why the average annual growth rate of Indias GDP is difficult to reach the "East Asian level" of 2 digits, and the lack of manufacturing development is the core reason.
Contribution of GDP growth in various industries in India
At the same time, ModiAfter the main administration, the contribution of the Indian manufacturing industry did not rise and fall.
From the perspective of the average GDP contribution of each quarter of the manufacturing industry, before Modi governed (the second quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2014) was 16.53%, while the Modi period (2014 in 2014 (2014)In the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2023), it fell to 13.92%.In addition, the industry with the largest increase in GDPs contribution after Modi was in power was community, society and personal services, with a degree of contribution of 3.23 percentage points.
Indian manufacturing industry GDP growth contribution each quarter
The added value of the manufacturing industry accounts for GDPLooking at the proportion, Modis proportion of manufacturing after governance did not reverse the long -term decline. By 2023, it had fallen to 12.84%, the lowest level since 1960.At the same time, the value -added of the service industry accounted for a record high as GDP, reaching 49.8%in 2023.In comparison, the proportion of GDPs of Bangladesh and Vietnams value -added GDP increased from 16.61%and 20.37%in 2014 to 22.34%and 23.88%in 2023.
The value-added of the Indian manufacturing and service industry accounts for GDP proportion
It has not changed the path of the service industry high.Despite this, in the context of implementing the "Friends Outsourcing" strategy in the United States and the West, the Modi government still strives to shape India as the best choice for "replace China".However, if you look at the actual data, compared with the Sino -US economic and trade friction in 2017, China ’s US imports in June 2024 decreased by 8.8 percentage points, but the same period of the printed share increased by 0.6 percentage points from 2.1%to 2.7%, far lower low, far lower low, far lower low2.3 percentage points in Vietnam and 1.9 percentage points in Taiwan, China.
In other words, the idea of "Indias replacement China" is difficult to stand up, and Indias replacement effect on the Chinese industrial chain supply chain is actually seriously exaggerated.
It is worth noting that although India has successfully attracted a number of foreign companies to invest in India to set up factories, although India has reached its huge domestic market and tariff barriers.Manufacturing exports still seriously lack price competitiveness.Therefore, most of the new production capacity "in India, India" rather than "in India, global", which indicates that Indias replacement of the supply chain of the Chinese industry chain at least not significantly at present.
Objectively see clearing color, calmly see the background color
Western media and Indians long -term reputation for a long timeIn the following, Indias economic performance is actually difficult to deputy; in recent years, the stakeholders are keen to advocate the "rise of India" narrative, especially the words that guide the shaping "the next global manufacturing center" are inconsistent.
The fundamental reason behind this phenomenon is that the factors of endogenous constraints such as lower laborers, rigid land acquisition system, rigorous labor system, and bad business environment have not improved.It seriously hinders the release of its own industrial development momentum.
In recent years, overseas investors have gradually realized the real background of the Indian economy. FDI (foreign direct investment) has a serious decline in inflowing, and the structure has not improved.
From the perspectiveA significant decline, from 18%in 2022 to below 8%.
From the perspective of structure, the main industry that has absorbed FDI in recent years is still the service industry, especially communication and computer service industry.The manufacturing industrys proportion of foreign capital decreased after Modi came to power. Not only did they not change the traditional path of printing growth, but instead exacerbated the degree of dependence on the service industry.
Considering that Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.Severe restrictions, not the impact of external factors such as the Federal Reserves interest rate hikes and the deterioration of global geographical situations.
Data Map: India Media
Indian economy seems to be rising, but "Endogenous risks such as removing reality "and" high deficit "have continued to accumulate.
On the one hand, Indias economic growth is excessively relying on the service industry, resulting in low toughness.IT, finance and other service industry departments have limited employment and creating export capacity, and have a high degree of dependence on overseas demand. Therefore, changes in the global market situation in India are easily enlarged, catalyzing the violent fluctuations that impact the economic operation.
On the other hand, the infrastructure and other departments that drive Indias economic growth rely on debt -driven, which is easy to form risk accumulation.The Modi government mainly supplements infrastructure funds with government debt financing, and in recent years, the general government deficit accounts for about 10%of GDP, which is more than double the average of emerging market countries.Among them, interest payment alone has accounted for 20%of the government expenditure, and it may also impact the sustainability and economic growth stability of financial investment in the future.
Of course, the breakthrough progress of India in infrastructure and other fields is worthy of attention, especially the long -term effects are worthy of attention.
The Modi government invested a total of 43.5 trillion rupees for infrastructure from 2014 to 2023. It initially reversed the trend of decline in the proportion of investment in GDP, marking the economy or from "domestic consumption."Single stretching" turned to "consumption, investment and other multi -driving troiders to joint."From the perspective of transportation, communication, power and other industries, India ’s infrastructure level has improved rapidly, and the external nature is better, which effectively reduces the cost of economic operation and better attracts manufacturing investment.
However, the validity of printing through the shortcomings of the infrastructure is still yet to be observed.The premise of printing borrowing debt supplementation is that "the long -term return rate of infrastructure is higher than that of government borrowing financing interest rates", but the yield rate of 10 -year Treasury bonds is currently as high as 7%.There is an infrastructure intensity, and it may even fall into the trap of "advanced infrastructure".
For India, neither can be despised nor need to look high
In the face of India, the worlds only large -scale country with the only 1 billion population level in China, we can neither be abducted by the old prejudice and prejudice and despise India.It is misjudgment of the strategy that is difficult to reverse; it should not blindly follow the "Indian Miracle" to look at India with other stakeholders who are under the "Indian Miracle".To objectively help India to improve the ability to implement the "friendly bank outsourcing" and "China +1" in the United States.Generally speaking, in China, the most ideal policy should be to pay attention to India, focusing on the long -term potential of Indias political and economic, mid -term trends, and recent dynamic development.Especially through the research of industry data mining and policy case research, it can further see through and find out the background and color of the Indian economy, and on this basis to formulate a strategy of indexing India that is good at the present and long -term long -term India.
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