On November 11, the main contract of alumina for aluminum aluminum 2501 again reported again, the disk, the plateThe highest record of 5477 yuan/ton is a new high since the continuation of the market.
From early September this year, due to the affected end of the supply end, the price of aluminum alumina opened a strong upward pattern.Futures prices have risen from about 3600 yuan/ton, rising by nearly 2,000 yuan/ton in less than two months.
On the spot market, according to mysterel, the average monthly price of domestic aluminum oxide in October 2024Rising 617 yuan/ton, rising 15.43%month -on -month.
The reason for the soaring price of alumina for alumina is mainly caused by factors such as low spot inventory, overgrowth overseas resistance, and slow progress of new production capacity.
"Although high profit stimulates the active production of aluminum oxide plants, domestic alumina enterprises are continuously produced high -load, the impact of superimposed ore supply and equipment maintenance, and some production capacity is still limited.In addition, with the increase in domestic alumina exports and the time limit for business access to the market, it is also digesting for some spot circulation.Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan and Guizhou are successfully put into operation or began to open up. The demand for raw materials for replenishment of raw materials has also increased. However, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum aluminum aluminum raw material inventory is about 11 days, a year -on -year decrease of 52.2%.
Due to the unfastelling of the long -term single execution in the early stage, and the price fluctuations have caused the procurement rhythm of the aluminum plant this year, the downstream raw material inventory remains relatively low.The impact of overlay holiday factors and winter replenishment, which led to aluminum factories to implement just need to replenish the library.
The latest research report of Jinyuan Futures also analyzed that last week, Overseas American aluminum announced that Brazils Juruti Hong Kong Aluminum Earth Mine Transportation encountered force majeure, and the absence of aluminum oxide was expected to rise further.
Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity increases or decreases, mainly in Southwest, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou, four places in the four places in Guizhou, Shanxi.The capacity of the production capacity, the overall production capacity has increased slightly compared with the previous.A small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity on the consumer side cannot accept the price maintenance of aluminum alumina.The overall balance is still tight, and the spot price continues to rise continuously.
Tan Changxu believes that the current domestic alumina production capacity of aluminum aluminum has approached the peak. In the future, the increase in supply is mainly based on the release of new production capacity, but the current production capacity is slow.Before the end of the year, the actual production capacity was only 1 million tons/year.At the same time, high yields are also facing high risk. The unstable ore quality and source of the ore have caused a large load in the production line of aluminum oxide plants. The frequency of reduction in production reduction in various regions has increased significantly. The short -term increase can only narrow the market supply gap.Fundamental favorable support is still there, and it is expected that the price of alumina for aluminum aluminum in November is expected to continue to be strong.
In order to resolve the risk of overheating market heat, since October, the proportion of aluminum oxide futures trading margin, the range of ups and downs, and transaction fees have been adjusted many times.On November 8th, the previous period further increased the control and control, and adopted restrictions on open positions and regulatory regulatory measures for aluminum oxide futures.
On the 11th, the relevant person in charge of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association publicly stated on the current situation of the aluminum aluminum market that there is an irrational factors in the price trend of alumina alumina, and the excessive speculation of capital is obvious.According to the current cost and price, the average profit of the alumina industry is more than 2,000 yuan/ton, which is not sustainable and should not be continuous.
"First, I hope that all parties should be in awe of the market, abide by the rules, recognize the fundamentals, and keep the bottom line. Relevant agencies should continue to strengthen supervision and prevent malicious speculation;Aluminum production capacity has ceiling. At the same time, the current supply and demand of aluminum aluminum is also basically balanced. It does not support the price to continue to rise too fast. The structure of aluminum alumina futures is nearly high and low.The price of aluminum is unreasonable, and the aluminum industry chain must attach great importance to the adverse effects brought by it and jointly maintain the steady operation of the industry.The above -mentioned person in charge said.
Indeed, the negative feedback of the industrial chain brought about by the high price of alumina for alumina has appeared.
According to mysterel, the Guangxi electrolytic aluminum plant A is affected by the high cost of aluminum oxide. Recently, the groove has been stopped. The initial plans to stop the slot 30%, which may be expanded to 50%.The Guangxi Electric Aluminum Plant B is also affected by high costs. The technical reform plan may be on the agenda, which is expected to affect an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons.
Jinyuan Futures believes that aluminum aluminas long -term production progress and speed waits for verification, the long -aged and weak pattern continues.However, it is important to pay attention to the increase in the maintenance of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, the reduction of the expected increase in demand for high -cost areas, and the continued suppression of non -compliance transactions in supervision, causing alumina positions and capital fluctuations.
Soochow Futures also said that in terms of alumina, the supply side problem cannot be seen in the short term.Time is to be determined, and the demand side is expected to remain at a high level, but it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of reducing production and expanding after the rising cost of electrolytic aluminum plants will be reduced.
Responsible editor: Chen Lixiang
School pair: Ran Yanqing
