10 trillion -in debt solution, what do you think of the market outlook?The first principle of the stock market?Can this round of securities firms change the shares in 2006?
Author | Beyond
Edit | Xiaobai
[Disclaimer] The perspective and introduction of this content are just my personal opinion, which does not constitute specific investment suggestions.This content is only for paid users for non -commercial use and for general materials and reference.Please make independent thinking judgments based on their actual needs.The market is risky, and investment must be cautious.
In this issue of investment proverbs:
Affordable risks will make you look more ordinary, but more convincing.——Tareb "Non Symmetry Risk"
The collision of thinking
1. Nankai Wuye asked: 10 trillion yuan after opening today, what do you think of the market outlook?
Answer: On November 8th, the "10 trillion" debt plan proposed by the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress was mainly to resolve local government debt risks.This plan reflects the determination of the central government to get rid of economic shrinkage and move towards a virtuous cycle. The first step chose "rescue" local governments, which is the "reorganization debt".
The TV series "Iron tooth Copper Ji Xiaolan" has a "disaster relief" discussion with He Xun, and He has advocated "save m to save G", which is the key.It also makes sense.
From the second half of this year, we have seen that a series of support and stimulus policies have been launched from currency to finance.Essence
The 10 trillion -time debt plan this time, the focus is on the high -interest liabilities of the special debt to replace the local debt, which will significantly alleviate the urgent need of some local debt burden, which is conducive to conducive toThree guarantees (protecting basic livelihood, salary, and operation of operation).
There must be many discussions that do not meet the "expectations" in the market -half cup of water is full or water.What we need to understand is that reality and expectations, like people walking dogs, expect this dog to continue to run around reality, sometimes this expectation and expected reversal may make no sense, and pure emotional depending on the emotional depending onEssence
In order to make the economy further unobstructed and truly open up the market blocked point, in addition to this debt plan, I am afraid that strong measures need to be introduced to solve local government engineering projects and platform categoriesThe companys huge corporate arrears, this is the complete solution of local stock debt.
In addition to the first step of "reorganization debt", subsequent measures that are vital to market confidence should also include "stimulating increase" and "reform of reform".For the two steps, for the central government, they belong to the "new recruits" that have not been used before, and we can only wait and see here.
The markets interpretation and response to short -term information is often efficient and even excessive, but the response to medium and long -term information is often inefficient and insufficient.The influence of the 10 trillion -time debt plan this time, I personally think that the short -term response of the market will soon become bland -A shares have the old saying, "buy it in expected, sell it in reality."It is deemed to be good.
When it comes to the market outlook, we should obviously discuss separately. In large aspects, we are different from A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and the A -shares are also different from differentiation.
First of all, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, GEM Index, Science50 broke through the front high on October 8th, and it exceeded the second high on October 25.It can be said that the bull market in this round is actually in the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Next, the A -share market atmosphere is in the "Care Period" of the dense policy.state.The major indexes have signs of high trials -such as 3674 points before the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but it is difficult to effectively break through.
The reason is that the market sentiment corresponding to the previous high point is too excited, and the market expectations of the previous heights are extremely optimistic.Push the comprehensive index to the level.What are the optimistic expectations that are hidden in the front height of the previous high position? It is detailed in the first week of the week.
(Source: Phase 1 Investment Week)
Looking at it for a few months), I have maintained the view that the "index is mainly at 3200 points and 200 points of shocks", because the market is above 3400 points, and the market has entered the overweight pressure zone.
If A shares continue to fluctuate at a volume of more than 2 trillion yuan per day, the digestion of this set of jail will be shortened.In the current market expectations of A shares, it seems that the impact of Trumps transaction is lacking in the consideration of a "gray rhino" incident.This impact is in the middle and long term, and it will suppress our economic fundamentals and market risk preferences, which will affect the market trend.
Second, lets talk about Hong Kong stocks.I personally think that some industry indexes in the Hong Kong stock market will start another wave of main rise and continue the rhythm of the bull market.Compared with A shares, I think the bull market in Hong Kong will go smoother.My opinion on Hong Kong stocks is involved in the previous periods of the previous periods, and everyone can watch it.
2. JW20 Question: What are the more secure choice targets in the financial market that officially entered the Trump season, what are the more stable selection targets and in the mid-term of 3-6 months.Which industries are relatively stable?Thanks.
Answer: In the following period of time, the A -share market is still in a state of active and dominant trading capital in the short term. The small plate and growth style are still the main line of the game industry.The trend of the 50 index can also be seen.
In the short -term "stable" industry sector in the A -share market, it may mean patronage that lacks active funds -in this fast cow, fluctuation itself means benefits.
