M1 send the strongest signal!
There is a statement in the history of A shares. In the wave market opened in 2005, the significance of the M1 indicator is very strong.Since the beginning of this year, this indicator has been weak, but from the financial data in October, M1 has picked up for the first time during the year.This has brought great expectations to the market.
In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 balance ushered in this years first improvement. Compared with last month, the decline decreased by 1.3 percentage points to -6.1%.After M2s growth rate is the first to improve, the growth rate of M0 and M1 has also rebounded.At the same time, the gap between the growth rate between M2 and M1 has also narrowed.Analysts believe that this is a positive incentive for A shares.From the perspective of the research framework, it can be said to be a super signal.
Return
On the 11th, the Peoples Bank of China released October financial data, adding 1.4 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 0.4The balance growth rate was 7.8%year -on -year, a decrease of 0.2ppt month -on -month; loans increased by 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan year -on -year.The year -on -year growth rate of M1/M2 -6.1%/+7.5%, rising 1.3ppt/0.7ppt, respectively.
Among them, the growth rate of M1 is particularly attractive.The end of the M1 ended for 9 consecutive months, and after M2 took the lead in improvement, it also ushered in a rebound.At the same time, the growth gap between M2 and M1 has also narrowed, from 14.2 percentage points last month to 13.6 percentage points.
From the historical research framework, M1s influence in the equity market is very great.The market believes that "M1 is fixed to buy and sell", because M1 once represents the vitality of corporate current deposits and the operating vitality of the enterprise; and the central bank incorporates more residents current deposits in M1, and also hopes that M1 can fully represent the business vitality of the entity department.
Macro Studies of Hongta Securities believe that this change shows that with the gradual effect of a series of new policies and measures, the active of the real economy has improved, the investment and the investment of enterprises and residentsThe willingness to consume also increases.In addition, the increase in risk preferences of stock investors has also prompted some regular deposits to be transformed into current deposits to prepare for investment, which further increased the growth rate of M1.
Minsheng Securities said that the M2 growth rate has maintained a steady recovery trend from June, and the total amount of total currency has created a good foundation for the economic backward.The difference between the difference between the M2 scissors is narrowing, or it indicates that the effect of the previous series of incremental policies has begun to appear, the improvement of consumer confidence, the improvement of corporate production activity, and the increase in the flexible funds retained on the book.
The Yangtze River Securities believes that the reason for the improvement of data is: on the one hand, the impact of "manual interest rate supplies high interest rates" has gradually subsided. On the other handThe loan is righteous year -on -year.
Trend
From the data in January this year, the M1 growth has once leapt.Data published during the Spring Festival, after the Spring Festival, the market also had a very good rebound.However, due to the superposition of various factors, the growth rate of M1 continued to turn around.So, what will happen to the follow -up trend of M1 growth?
CICC said that the currency statistical caliber is expected to usher in amendments.The monetary policy report mentioned that the study of personal current deposits and payment institutions reserved deposits were included in the M1 statistical caliber. As of September, the year-on-year growth rate of personal current deposits and payment institutions was +3.9%/-2.4%, respectively, all higher than M1-7.4%of the growth rate.If the two are included in the M1 statistics, the calculation can increase the M1 growth rate by 4.1 percentage points (from -7.4%to -3.3%).
The Yangtze River Securities believes that the regulatory level is consistent with the needs of the market at the moment.At the same time, considering the central banks statement of "promoting the reasonable rise of prices", although it is different from the simple "inflation target system" of the Abe government in Japan, it means that incremental policy and support monetary policy position may continue.From the point of view of the time window, the fiscal incremental policy has been launched on November 8th. During the year, there may be 2 trillion special bond issuance. The next step is the central banks cooperation.Both or overweight.The M1, which is determined to buy and sell, and even the fundamentals, the looseness is more loose.
Hongta Securities believes that despite the improvement of the future expectations of the company, the willingness to invest and expand by increasing debt may still be insufficient.It also needs further repair.Since late October, key economic indicators such as PMI, real estate, exports and prices in my country have shown positive signals, indicating that the economy is recovering.Financial data also reflects that the expected investment and consumption expectations of enterprises and residents are increasing, which further confirms the turning point of the economic recovery.However, the conversion from wide currency to wide credit has not been fully realized.Looking forward to the future, a series of policy tools will play a role in fiscal and debt resolution.The Peoples Bank of China has also reiterated its firm position for its supporting monetary policy.With the further efforts of fiscal and monetary policy, the pace of economic recovery is expected to accelerate.
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