ZTE, which has fallen for five years, has opened a strong rise!
On November 11, ZTEs daily limit, the total market value exceeded 170 billion yuan. Since the end of September, its cumulative increased by more than 40%.
Review. Previously: ZTE has opened the "long bear road" since 2020. During the period, the maximum retracement of the market value exceeded 60%.Entering 2024, ZTE had a long -term low horizontal.
"Bear" for so long, why is it "flying into the sky"?
There are two reasons: the bull market atmosphere+autonomous controllable logic.
The atmosphere of the bull market does not need to be said;
"Autonomous controlled" logic background is:During the end and Trump will return to the White House, the United States has a heating up against Chinas "scientific and technological warfare", and domestic replacement urgency will improve again.
Recently, the sanctions method "coming out" is extremely dense:
On October 28, the US release of the final rules for investment restrictions in China; 11On the month, TSMC will disconnect the 7 -nanometer AI chip foundry for part of the mainland; the leading 5 overseas semiconductor equipment, including ASML, is also rumored to be investigated by the United States, asking for providing customer information.
So, almost all "national team" companies related to Xinchuang and Semiconductor, especially the "Chinese character" companies, have continued to rise continuously., Northern Huaduchu has a record high, and the Great Wall of China and China Software also reached a new high.
In this case, the capital mining of ZTE is reasonable.
However, the current problem of ZTE is that the fundamentals and growth are obvious flaws.Whether the company can take the "Dongfeng" replaced by this round of this round has achieved gorgeous turns.
The basic market business of ZTEs operators is suffering from the cold winter; in terms of opening the second growth curve, the company has not seized this wave of AI dividends.
First talk about the companys basic business.
In the third quarter of 2024, ZTEs performance declined in full: revenue decreased by 3.9%year -on -year, and profit decreased by 8.2%year -on -year.
ZTEs main operator business.After 2021, with the gradual construction of the domestic 5G network, operators related investment declined.It can be seen that starting in 2021, ZTEs annual revenue rate increases slower.
In 2021, 2022 and 2023, ZTEs revenue growth rates were 12.88%, 7.36%, and 1.05%, respectively.In the first three quarters of this year, only 0.73%, and revenue declined year -on -year in the third quarter.
In the first half of this year, the number of ZTE workers decreased significantly.
At the end of 2023, there were 7,3709 ZTE employees. By the end of the first half of this year, only 68,214 were left.
In fact, from 2023, ZTE has been circulating layoffs.
Interestingly, while ZTEs employees are reduced, several other major communications operating giants in the world are also layoffs.
According to the Layoffs website, Ericsson reduced 8,500 people in a wave of layoffs in 2023.Cisco reduced nearly 10,000 people in the two layoffs in 2024.
In short, the era of large -scale expansion has passed. At present, the business of operators in the world is in the "cold winter", and the reduction of costs and increasing efficiency is imperative.
Then talk about ZTEs communication without catching the AI dividend.
AI boom is coming, driving the global range of computing power high.During the 2023 annual report, ZTE proposed "the second curve business represented by computing power as the representative".
The data center is the main carrier of the computing power. The construction of the data center is essentially the "new infrastructure" of AI infrastructure and the advantage of ZTE.
However, ZTEs related business is not dazzling.
In 2023, ZTEs government -enterprise business revenue included data centers was 13.584 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 7.14%.
In the first half of 2024, the companys political enterprise revenue increased by 56.09%year -on -year, saying that "mainly due to the growth of server and storage operating income", but the gross profit margin decreased by 5.74 percentage points year -on -year.
In addition, the International Data Company (IDC) report shows that in the first half of 2024, the sales of Chinese accelerated server manufacturers, Inspur, Xinhua San, Ningchang in the top three, occupying the top three, occupying it, occupying the occupationWith more than 70%of the market share, ZTE is still unknown, and it seems to be disproportionate to its "national team" status.
In February this year, some investors asked on the interactive platform: "What is the market share of your companys AI computing power server?" ZTE only blurred: "The company is increasingRelated products and solutions, continue to optimize performance, and strive to improve market share.Essence
ZTE and Huawei, in the past, in everyones impression, is a player in the communication field.However, for many years, the gap has not been the same.
For ZTE, many people may have encountered US sanctions many years ago, but as a comparison, Huawei, the leader of the operator business that was also sanctioned that year, was committed to research and development.New energy vehicles, Hongmeng ecology ... and other fields have blossomed and walked out of the new road.
In fact, the so -called sanctions are also crisis and machine. This time, can ZTE really eat domestic alternative dividends?
ZTE, when will "ZTE"?
