On November 8th, the Minister of Finance Lanfo An introduced at the press conference of the 12th meeting of the 14th National Peoples Congress of the 14th National Peoples Congress. Starting from 2024, my country will five consecutive years in a row for five consecutive years. Each year, 800 billion yuan is arranged from new local government bonds, which are specially used for bonds. The cumulative recessive debt can be set up 4 trillion yuan.Coupled with the 6 trillion yuan debt limit approved by the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress this time, it directly increases the localized debt resources of 10 trillion yuan.
How much impact is the bond measure launched this time?Which capital market areas are obvious?Many institutions released the latest interpretation in the morning:
: Domestic fiscal force, the direction of incremental policy in the next stage is clear, favorableThe main lines such as debt and expansion of domestic demand
Guotai Junan pointed out that resolving debt tightening is the creation of long -term growth expectations and restarting credit expansion creation of market.For the stock market, loosening and burden reduction is conducive to the reduction of the markets doubts about debt tightening and the decline of the balance sheet. In order to reshape the long -term growth expectations to create favorable conditions, it takes time to depend on further policy.It is recommended to grasp the relative income of the broader market, and actively layout around the domestic demand and autonomous and controllable layout.Differential policy differences, differentiation and cooling of the subject matter to slow down their hands. At the end of the year, short -term shocks and rotation will continue. It is more optimistic about large -cap stocks: 1. Overseas boots landing, domestic fiscal force, the direction of incremental policy in the next stage is clear, good favorable, good favorableMain lines such as debt and expansion of domestic demand.The quality of the companys assets optimization is recommended: architecture, environmental protection, and innovation.Recommended domestic demand: retail and Hong Kong stocks Internet.2. Since the "policy bottom" has appeared, it is expected to gradually bottom out and accelerate the elimination of the industry at the same time in 2025 at the same time in 2025., Construction machinery, new energy.3. Loose liquidity, telecommunications operators and railway roads with flat stock prices in the early stage are expected to rebound.
Huatai Securities: Grasp the expected to increase the high -quality bank of the bank
Huatai Securities believes, "In recent years," in recent yearsOne of the most supporting measures for debt "highlights the sincerity of regulatory solution to urban investment risks.At present, the central government increases the bonds, and part of the key regional banks in part of the debt will benefit from the expected improvement and drive valuation repair.In the middle and long term, the economy is steadily restored and the risk appetite will be improved. Bank stock selection will gradually return to fundamental logic to enhance the valuation space of high -quality banks.The growth of high -quality regional industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is expected to continue to lead, and strategic upgrades in the western region are also expected to bring new opportunities to local banks.
CITIC Securities: Active debt replacement, bank valuation benefits
CITIC Securities Research Report, three itemsThe launch of the residual debt resolution policy is conducive to the light and high -quality development of local governments.By replacement methods, large -scale resolution debts are resolved, and new debt management is strengthened. It has a positive impact on the banking industry. Although replacement has a neutral impact on the comprehensive income of the profit statement, it effectively consolidates the quality of the balance sheet and helps valuation repair.
CITIC Construction Investment: The policy of the debt is on schedule. In the short term, it is conducive to the stabilityID = "35M8TI92"> CITIC Construction Investment said that a series of measures to support bonds are conducive to promoting economic growth, on the other hand, it is expected to increase the supply of bond market. In the short termpressure.In addition, it also helps to improve the quality of related financial assets, and the risk of related investment openings held by insurance companies is expected to be further released.At the press conference, the relevant tax policies that support the healthy development of the real estate market have been submitted in accordance with the procedures, and it is about to be launched in the near future. Special bonds support the recycling idle stock land, new land reserves, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing.It is cooperating with relevant departments to study and formulate policies to accelerate the landing. A series of favorable policies in the real estate industry are also expected to drive the real estate -related opening risks of insurance companies to further slow down.
