A press conference on Friday, the 6+4 trillion -in -debt plan was announced.
In the past two days, this has become a hot spot in public opinion.
Experts from various ways, institutions and bloggers quickly interpret, and then predict how A -shares will go this week.
But, these interpretations are actually blind.
I ask a question: How much GDP can the GDP increase?How much valuation and performance can the stock market be enhanced?
How can it be answered?
If you cant answer, those so -called super -expected and unexpected expectations are purely nonsense.
So what does this 10 trillion yuan debt mean for A shares?
This means that A shares will start a bull market in another way.
1. Psychologically meet expectations
Please note, although no one can really know 10How much impact can trillion bonds have on GDP and A -share performance, but the market is composed of emotions.
That is to say, No matter what, even if it is boundless, the stock market will form an average expectation.
Then make short -term transactions according to this expectation.(Pay attention to the short -term two words)
As for the inferior does not meet the expectations, we can only observe after the incident landed.
Many short -fried funds will run before the incident is facing this uncertain circumstances.
This is the so -called buying expectations, selling reality.
For them, it is not important to expect. It is important that It is expected that the stock market can rise.
But in order to avoid expectations, they will run in advance.
If they exceed expectations, do they see if they want to chase.
The press conference was opened after the closing of A shares, so the response of A shares will be delayed to this week.
We can observe the bond market, exchange rate and A50 futures to speculate whether it meets the expectations.
When the press conference announced only 6 trillion, long debt interest rates fell, A50 futures fell, and the RMB depreciated rapidly.
This means that 6 trillion cannot satisfy the appetite of the market.
However, when there was 4 trillion yuan, the interest rate of long debt bombarded quickly and returned to the position before the decline.
This shows that domestic capital believes that it meets the average expectations.
A50 futures also rebounded after diving.The description basically meets their expectations.
In the evening, the trend of A50 futures is a bit twists and turns.
I personally think that this is not exactly the 10 trillion reflection of debt, but to keep the subsequent policy observation.
After all, it only announced the incident of Hua debt on the day, and other policies did not mention it in detail.
Back to the beginning.
How much GDP increases how much GDP can 100,000 bonds bring?How much valuation and performance can the stock market be enhanced?
No one knows this at all.
No one even knows that 10 trillion yuan is enough to use the debt.
The 10 trillion stares in our eyes are anchored by the small composition.
It is like you buy an antique and the merchant bids 10,000 yuan.
Because you dont understand antiques, you value it will surround the anchor of 10,000 yuan.
For example, you are used to 50 % off, so ask the merchant 5,000 yuan to buy it?
But if the merchant bids 20,000 yuan, according to your habits, you will pay 10,000 yuan.
For most people, no one knows that there are more than 10 trillion or less.
Understand these, we know that most investors are actually playing by foreign media.
However, from the perspective of the trend of long debt interest rates and the trend of A50 futures, it is also quite basically met the psychological expectations of the market.
So how do you go next to the market?
Three, switching of the logic of the bull market
This round of rising starts from September 26, the catalyst is the financial port of the financial mouth.Conference.Then it took a big cake in finance.
and The press conference last Friday is to draw an end to this round of hype.
When it is about to draw a dead end, because the funds are concerned about uncertainty, they will evacuate on Friday and sell reality.
Next, the speculation logic will switch.
It will focus on the next incremental policy.
Dont forget, at the press conference on Friday, the management was thrown out of the management again, Draw another big cake
