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Risk Tips: The view mentioned in this article only represents individualsOpinions are not recommended by the target. Based on this, the risks are responsible.
Author: EricWarn Ding Ning
Source:
After the continuous plunge, many people have a question: Is the bull market ended?In fact, if there is a bull market, "entering the two retreats" is normal.Judging from this indicator, the bull market is not over!
1. Entrusted one It did not fall below
>The lowest point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is 2689 points, the highest point is 3674 points, and the average value is 3181.5 points.In other words, after less than 3200 points, "enter the two retreats" will fall below!
If the closing price is based on the closing price, the lowest point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is 2704 points, the highest point is 3489 points, and the average value is 3096.5 points.In other words, after less than 3100 points, "enter two retreats" will fall below!
The lowest point from the 300 -Shenzhen and Shenzhen 300 in this round is 3145 points, the highest point is 4450 points, and the average value is 3797.5 points.In other words, after less than 3800 points, "enter the two retreats" will fall below!
If the closing price is based on the closing price, the lowest point from the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 3159 points, the highest point is 4256 points, and the average value is 3707.5 points.In other words, after less than 3700 points, "enter the two retreat" will fall below!
Although the indicator of "entering the two retreats" is too simple and rude, it is known that the domestic bull market in the domestic stock market still follows this law.Considering that investment is a probability, I believe that the bull market is not over!
2. The bull market strategy is completely different from non -bull strategies
Bull market strategy:EssenceMost positions can fully enjoy valuation repair, and a small number of positions can even enjoy the valuation bubble!
Non -cattle strategy: Retoning to the internal value, it starts to increase and sell more and more.It has been thoroughly cleared to a reasonable valuation, and the probability is completely missed by the valuation bubble!
3. Calculate the internal value I use the market to make a profit
In order to learn Buffett, I invented itA "market profit rate".Its formula is: market earning rate = P/E ratio/net asset yield (PR = PE/ROE).Considering that ROE is a percentage, the real formula is actually: PR = PE/ROE/100.When the markets profit rate is equal to 1PR as a reasonable valuation, greater than 1PR and less than 1PR are overvalued and underestimated.Buffett 40 % off and 40 % off shares, I also use a cat to paint a 40 % discount of 40 % off!
For companies that "make fake money" in China, I also use the 50%dividend payment rate as a benchmark, and add the correction coefficient (PR = N*PE/ROE/100)EssenceCompanies with a dividend payment rate of ≥50%, the correction coefficient is 1.0 (50%divided 50%); a company with a dividend payment rate ≤25%, the correction coefficient is 2.0 (50%divided by 25%); 50%> dividend payment rate>25%of the company, such as 40%of the company, the correction coefficient is 1.25 (50%divided by 40%).Amending the market profit rate is only applicable to the stable value stocks of ROE, and the cyclical stocks are used (because the year of prosperity will increase the dividend), the technology stocks (because the repurchase instead of the dividend is often replaced), the growth shares are used (because you need to keep the existing stockProfit is used for growth).
Considering PE = PB/ROE, the market profit rate can also derive the second formula: PR = PB/ROE/ROE/100.In the investment cycle stock, you can enter the second formula of the lowest ROE in the current PB and the boom cycle, thereby calculating the more conservative market profit valuation.
Taking China Sea Oil H shares as an example, the current value is 1.24PB, and the lowest value of the ROE period of the prosperity cycle is 15.36%.The most conservative market profit rate = 1.24/15.36%/15.36%/100 = 0.526pr.
Taking China Shenhua H shares as an example, the current value is 1.62pb, and the lowest value of the ROE cycle ROE is 13.64%.The most conservative market profit rate = 1.62/13.64%/13.64%/100 = 0.871pr.
Taking the COSCO Marina H shares as an example, the current value is 0.84pb, and the lowest value of the boom cycle ROE is 11.80%.The most conservative market profit rate = 0.84/11.80%/11.80%/100 = 0.603pr.
Considering that the liquidity and dividend rate of H shares are considering the disadvantages of H -shares, so the selling range can be set to 20 % and 10 % off.In the last round of the prosperity cycle, both sea oil H and Shenhua H appeared to overestimate the sale signal.
4. From the perspective of the market profit rate At least 4000 points or more will generally overestimate
This weeks closing, the popular A -share popular value stocks I followed did not have any more than 1PR.The semi -annual report is unsatisfactory, and the pessimistic perspective is+0.1PR.The pharmaceutical industry is facing collection, clear+0.1PR.There are rumors in Luzhou Laojiao. Gree Electrics revised shareholders return plan is relatively casual. After the Return of Chengdus convertible bonds will be redeemed, the actual controller of Emma Technology is filed, so the valuation is also the same as+0.1PR.But even so, there are still no market profit rates exceeding 1PR.
The closing of this week, the H -share popular value stock I pay attention to does not have one or more.However, several stocks in the construction industry have generally risen to more than 0.8PR, including China Construction International, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction.I only hold a little observation warehouse by myself, and it is expected that the rise in the construction industry will be completely cleared.
The closing this week, the H -share popular cycle stock I pay attention to is only one or more.The selected ROE is almost the lowest year of ROE during the prosperity cycle.But even so, only the Chinese Hongqiao family is overvalued.In addition, Tencent Holdings and China Feihe also put this form together and adopted the valuation of non -ROE (non -international accounting standards).
5. At the end Primary science popularization
Unless it is a comprehensive big bull market, it is impossible for stocks in an industry to be fully overestimated, so you need to find an industry benchmark.After the industry benchmark is overestimated, all the stocks of the same industry are sold.I choose Guizhou Maotai, the group of home appliances, my group, and the coal I choose China Shenhua H shares.AH has stocks, with H as a benchmark, and sells A after overestimation.
For ROE stable companies, the author most often uses TTM PE with TTM ROE for valuation. Only in this way can the status quo closest to the company.The TTM ROE value of A shares can use the same flower Shun PC version → F10 → Finance → single quarter → net asset income, add the ROE value in the last four quarters.The TTM ROE value of H shares, the author most often uses the snowball network PC version.Take the Stone Medicine Group as an example, the ROE+ROE in the second half of last year this year.In the first half of this year, ROE = 8.88%, and ROE = 18.53% -9.57% = 8.96% in the second half of last year.From this, the TTM ROE = 8.88%+8.96%= 17.84%of the TTM ROE of the Stone Medicine Group.
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Risk reminder: The fund has risks and investments need to be cautious.This course is sponsored by the Snowball Fund. It is only used as a science of investigation, which does not constitute investment advice.
