Source of this article: Times Weekly Author: Liang Zhengwu
Around the Spring Festival, the Shenzhen property market "Xiti" has two advantages, including Shenzhen Housing and Urban Construction Bureau adjustment restriction policy, LPR, which is linked to the mortgage interest rate, has lowered 25 basis points to 3.95%.
The blessing of the heavy policy, has the Shenzhen real estate market heated back?
According to reporters from Times Weekly, most of the visiting volume of new markets in Shenzhen and the number of second -hand houses have risen, but the transaction situation has not improved significantly.According to the data of Ke Rui, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, from mid -to -late January, the volume of ordinary commodity housing in Shenzhen fell for five consecutive weeks.Before and after the holiday (February 5th to February 18), the area of new commercial housing signed in Shenzhen was about 1499 square meters, a significant decrease of 92.6%from the previous month.
However, many interviewed developers and market institutions believe that when the New Deal was introduced, it was exactly the market off -season. As the policy effect continued to release, the property market "Xiaoyangchun" was expected to be expected to be expectedEssence
The amount of consultation has increased, and the transaction has not yet improved.The Spring Festival holiday in Shenzhen has performed well, but this is based on the low base.
Zhuge Data Research Center monitoring data show that 17 new commercial residential residential transactions in Shenzhen in 2024, rising year -on -year.However, the actual situation is that in the Spring Festival in 2023, the newly -built commercial residential transactions in Shenzhen were "zero".
Ker Rui pointed out that although some real estate planned to attract customers by limited special offers, such as limited special housing, home clothing packages, house purchase and property fees, the overall as a wholeThe transaction is not good. From February 5th to February 18th, there are only 16 units in Shenzhens new commercial housing.
"Since the New Deal is approaching the Spring Festival when the New Deal is released, most intermediaries and house buyers have returned to their hometown. Although customers willingness to see a house is strengthened, the mentality of buying a house is still tangled.It still takes a certain period, and it takes time for significant effects. "Ker Rui said.
After the festival, as residents work and home purchase and home business gradually entered the right track, the market activity has increased.
A research report released by the Shenzhen Shell Research Institute on February 22 states that before the Spring Festival this year, Shenzhen issued an optimized purchase restriction policy.Under the dual benefits, the enthusiasm of the property in the market is higher than in previous years, and the Shenzhen property market after the festival is "warmth."
The monitoring data of the agency shows that four days after the end of the Spring Festival holiday this year (February 18th to February 21), the actual transaction volume of Shenzhen used in Shenzhen hit a new high of nearly five years, an increase of year -on -year increase163.6%, an increase of 87.1%over 2019.
However, some people in the industry believe that this change has certain specialties and is mainly caused by policy boost.The favorable policies of the same strength are introduced, so it is difficult to determine that the market has been substantially recovered by single indicators.
A agent who has been working for many years told the Times Weekly reporter that after the festival, the customers customer consultation volume has indeed increased, but "the transaction has not changed significantly.I just ca n’t buy much. I ’m going to see a policy. Come and ask the price and ask the transaction (the situation). February has passed. I have n’t issued a bill this year. I still have to return to the rental market.I dare not bet on the sale. "
" The market has changed, but it is not enough to reverse the current trend. "A marketing port of a Shenzhen brand housing company told the Times Weekly reporter,After the "2 · 7 New Deal" came out, the company produced propaganda materials to customers overnight. It mainly invested in the sales of the project and the discounts that could be given to customers, but the transaction did not change much."House prices have not stopped falling, and customer income expectations are not expected, and it will be difficult to improve for a while."
According to the observation of a market institution, the current second -hand housing in Shenzhen is depending onThe amount has been restored to normal level before the holiday. The future transaction performance depends on the transaction volume of the next two weekends."Normally, the blessing of the two policies will not be worse."
"Xiaoyangchun" is expected, second -hand monthly transactions may be on 5,000 sets
The policy effect is to be released, but the recovery momentum is brewing.Many people in the industry believe that the "Xiaoyangchun" of the property market is worth looking forward to.
The monitoring data of the Shenzhen Shell Research Institute shows that the number of new customers after the festival and the comparison of the volume comparison before the holiday (February 6 to February 9) will be significantly significantly large.Growth, four days after the Spring Festival holiday this year (February 18th to February 21), the number of new customers increased by 340.3%, and the view volume increased by 1288%.
Data from the Shenzhen Central Plains Research Center in Shenzhen also show that the number of people online houses has increased significantly. The number of interviews for houses in the Central Plains and the number of user consultation continues to rise, up at a maximum of 183.6%month -on -month.
Many visits in Shenzhen are also rising.According to a local real estate enterprise project in Shenzhen, the "2nd New Deal" landed until February 19, and the sales office visited increased by 106%; a brand housing enterprise project stated that the visit to the new policy rose 92%after the landing of the land, and when the performance was good, the performance was good.9 sets of houses were sold a day.
Shenzhen Shell Research Institute believes that "Xiaoyangchun" in the property market is expected to start from early to late February.The volume of houses has been significantly rebounded, and the market has gradually returned to normal level; on the other hand, Shenzhens optimization restriction policy has played a great positive role in the market.The house ticket was released, especially the individual households, the young "Shenzhen Second Generation", and the elderly with the relocate.
"Shenzhen is expected to appear in advance in the second half of February," Xiaoyang Chun "in advance, March is" Xiaoyang Chun Plus. ", In August last year, the policy of "recognition of houses and not recognizing loans" in Shenzhen promoted transactions by 60%. The actual transaction volume in September increased from 2,500 to more than 4,000 units. Conservatively estimated that the "2 · 7 New Deal" will promote the increase in transaction volume by 60 60%, The transaction volume of second -hand housing in March is expected to exceed 5,000 units.
He Ling, the chief marketing of the marketing, told reporters of the Times Weekly that Shenzhen was favorable to the introduction of policies, further optimizing the regulatory policies, and release demand;The market mood improved, and the transaction rebound after the holiday was significantly faster than last year. It is expected that "Xiaoyang Chun" is expected.If this trend continues, the actual volume of the market in March may break 5,000 units.
It is worth mentioning that the monthly transaction volume reached 5,000 units, which is the "Rongyu Line" of the Shenzhen second -hand housing market.More than 5,000 units means that the market is active; less than 5,000 units, it means the market is downturn.Data from the Leyoujia Research Center showed that the monthly transaction volume of the last second -hand house in Shenzhen crossed the "Rongku Line" and occurred in March 2021, with a transaction of 6789 suites.
The judgment of the Shenzhen Central Plains Research Center is more cautious.The agency believes that the current volume of second -hand housing in Shenzhen is increasing. "Xiaoyang Chun" will bring the market to the market slowly "recovery". "Even so, it is still worth looking forward to spring."
