On the morning of February 23, the private placement queen Li Bei again posted "After escaping the fire, dont return to it again", I thought her family was on fire.After reading it, I knew it was the risk of reminding small -cap stocks. Li Bei said in the article that since the fourth quarter of last year, the risk of small and micro -cycling stocks has been continuously reminded.After a while, but now I started to return.The focus of Li Beis article is still reminding the future risk of small and micro -cycles is still the largest in A shares. Her words are very straightforward: Small micro -disk is the largest fire field !
This time I recognized Li Beis point of view. The author prompts the risk of the CSI 2000 at the end of last year, and directly pointed out that it should be the case.The decline of the index started. After the beginning of 2024, the trend of the China Securities 2000 Index can be described as a thousand miles, a large decline and a rapid decline. Throughout the history of the entire A shares, it is rare.Falling 37%, a single day has a spectacle that has fallen by more than 9%.It was Aihong. During that time, the shareholders holding small -cap stocks could be described as heavy losses. Small and micro -celled stocks became the "fire scene".
But since this round of rebound, the CSI 2000 index is also one of the largest rebound among all indexes, and it has risen by 3.2%today.31%, and the Wan De Micro -CMB index rose 4.9%, rebounded 45%from the low point , small micro -disk became the most beautiful of the audience, and became this round of this round.There are many investors who have escaped the fire scene, so they choose to return to the fire scene again.
This behavior is tantamount to taking shudder in Li Beis view. Small and micro-shares actually face two risks. First of all, the valuation is too high.In, the current rolling price -earnings ratio of CSI 2000 is 54 times.This high valuation is not cheap even in the bull market. Besides, the background of a bear market has just experienced a round of bear markets. The bubble of small and micro -cycling stocks is still sufficient and has not been squeezed.
Followed by the background of the registration system, the supply side is almost infinite, even if it slows down today, compared to the overall supply before the registration system, the stock is no longer a oneRare things can have a premium, but once the scarcity is lost, the premium will gradually disappear. Standing at GJDs position, you dont want everyone to speculate in small and micro -shares with valuations.
From the background of the high -level general general, the capital market in the next few years must be a trend of stricter supervision.The squeezed bubbles were squeezed out of Xiang, so many funds ran to small -cap stocks, which caused the 2000 China CSI Index to increase by nearly 6%.The double valuation, which is also 11 times the valuation of the financial sector. It is obvious that the valuation advantage of the valuation of small -cap stocks is 50 to 60 times.
The purpose of the investment must be obtained, and the high valuation corresponds to the expectations of future high growth.It does not bring high -growth adaptability. At this time, the low valuation to a certain extent will show an advantage. Recently, the strong trend of banks and coal is also the reason. The dividend rate is too high, greater than 5%or even 10%.Such a high dividend rate is difficult to say that it doesnt like.
